Day 33: How to Fix the Minnesota Twins (Part 4)

Disclaimer: Apologies to those who are uninterested with baseball chatter, it will be over soon(ish)...

Today's topic of discussion will be on the starting pitchers for the Twins, and what (if anything) they should do about them. As stated a few days back, the current Twins rotation looks like so:

SP - Scott Baker

SP - Kevin Slowey

SP - Nick Blackburn

SP - Francisco Liriano

SP - Glen Perkins

The real wild card in that rotation is obviously Liriano, and any step towards him regaining his 2006 form would be extremely beneficial. But let's not bank on that, in fact, in the 2009 season he rarely showed anything resembling a league average starter, let alone the phenom that was gathering comparisons to his, at the time, rotation mate Johan Santana. In fact, it was Liriano's strong performance in the latter half of the 2006 season that partially influenced the Twins to trade Johan to the Mets (for what essentially turned out to be J.J. Hardy and Jon Rauch, but that's neither here nor there).

As it currently stands the rotation lacks, and desperately needs, a legitimate ace; especially considering the White Sox acquisition of Jake Peavy from the Friars. So the question is then, which of these pitchers (if any) need to be moved, and which of these pitchers and the pitchers in the Twins minor league system have earned or deserve serious consideration for the 2010 Opening Day roster. Well that's what we're going to tackle here, so strap on boots because its going to get bumpy.

Scott Baker

Scott Baker began his 2009 campaign with a vicious series of drubbings that made most people quickly forget that this was the same guy that ended the '08 season with a very respectable 3.45 ERA over 172.1 IP with 141:42 K:BB ratio. For all intents and purposes, he was the Twins ace of the 2008 season. Only 26 at the start of the 2008 season, everything seemed to point to Baker finally blossoming into that 1-2 type pitcher than Twins fans had hoped for. The only real knock on Baker was he seemed to give up more HRs than one would like, but given the rest of his numbers it was really picking knits. This year that seemingly minor blemish on Baker track record came to dominate his first half. Baker was sporting a Livan-esque 6.32 ERA through April and May giving up 14 HR in only 52.2 innings of work. During these early months, there were calls from various media sources to cut ties with Baker or to demote him to AAA, in favor of ??, but Baker powered through to finish the season as maybe the rotations most reliable pitcher, again. Baker comes into the 2010 season looking to build upon the solid foundation he's establish over the past few years and is by quite a large margin the most reliable pitcher in the Twins current rotation.

Kevin Slowey

Derailed last season with a wrist injury, Slowey's potential to become a legit 2-type pitcher is very real. Discounting his final two starts given the injury, he had put together a very effective 4.04 ERA in 84.2 IP, with a 67:10 K:BB ratio and winning 10 games. Slowey was on his was to a great year before the season ending wrist injury. Slowey will be ready for spring training '10 and looks to complete his first full MLB season. Barring another flukey injury Slowey will be an excellent complement to Baker for many years to come.

Nick Blackburn

In 2009 Blackburn was given what might be the most annoying nickname in all of baseball, "Blackie". Though he bares no resemblance to the stray cat that lurks through your neighborhood, for the most part, he is just as much of an anomaly. Throughout the minors Blackburn's numbers seemed to suggest back end starter as much as anyone; however, once he was brought up to the Show and given a chance he took full advantage of it. In 2008, Blackburn pitched 193.1 innings with a solid 4.05 ERA, with a relatively beefy (especially for the Twins) 96:39 K:BB ratio, still above league average. He went on to go .500 that season with 11 wins and 11 losses. In his second full season (2009), Blackburn took a 3.06 ERA into the All-Star break, and while his primary numbers looked good, his peripheral numbers seemed to suggest he was in for a regression. His BABIP at All-Star break was miniscule and by the end of the season, he'd seen his regression and finished with a nearly league average .309 BABIP. While Blackburn's performance in the majors since arriving hasn't been Lincecumworthy, it has been solid. If there's one area Blackburn needs to improve it would be with his fastball, on a pitch that he throws over 60% of the time he needs to locate it to miss more bats more frequently. His 2009 regular season numbers don't vary much compared to his 2008 numbers, but its hard to wonder what would have happened had it not been for his "lucky" first half.

Francisco Liriano

I've already suggested here that for the time being the best place for Liriano is in the bullpen. I'll be the first to say I'd love to see Liriano rebound back to his 2006 form, but I'm doubtful he gain ever fully regain that ability. As such I won't spend anymore time discussing him until next week.

Glen Perkins

And finally we come to the Perk, Perky, Glen Porkins, or maybe its Jek Perkins...either way. Glen Perkins just settled a service time grievance with the Twins regarding whether the Twins purposefully delayed his service time during his shoulder rehab, which essentially prevented him from being arbitration eligible this year. I get the impression that Perkins has sort of rubbed the Twins the wrong way due to this and probably due to the fact that he has NO out pitch. The guy is perfectly mediocre in every definition of the word. Some how this guy is slated to the rotation over more capable pitchers like Anthony Swarzak, Brian Duensing or even Jeff Manship. Even more surprising than that is that some teams apparently have interest in him, as he was rumored to be the target of an early deal (that either was made up or fell apart) for J.J. Hardy. Well if I'm Bill Smith, first I read this blog, then I try to move this guy as quickly as possible. He does not possess the type of stuff that can solidify a rotation that has post-season hopes, even in the AL Central.

Okay, so now that I've gone over what the Twins have slated as the rotation for next year, tomorrow's post will wrap up this part of the discussion with an overview of the what the possible SP moves are for the Twins. I'm hoping to open up a little bit of discussion early next week when I start discussing what I think their opening day 2010 lineup should look like.