Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Day 31: How to Fix the Minnesota Twins (Part 2)


Yesterday I talked briefly about the moves that have already been undertaken by the Geminis (a nickname that I'm not ready to give up on yet, especially when the alternative is the Twinkies). Today's and tomorrow's topics of discussion are saved for the payroll and possible targets for Twins this offseason. The 2009-2010 offseason isn't exactly chuck full of talents Free Agents chomping at the bit to sign with a small market wunderkind, but there are a few relatively interesting options out there that are worth considering, but first lets take a look at where we are now--payroll wise.

The Twins expected payroll should increase to somewhere in the neighborhood of $90 million dollars this year, which is pretty good considering they've never had a payroll that exceeded $75 million. Also there are reports that seems to hint that the payroll, with the boost from the new stadium could be in the $90-100 Million range, but for the sake of conservatism I'll go with $90 million.

Much of the following section was taken from mlbtraderumors.com, a highly recommended website for those interested in...mlb...trade..rumors...pretty obviously I guess right? Anyway, so here's what we're looking at before arbitration hearings:

C - Joe Mauer (Baby Jesus): $12.5MM
C - Jose Morales (which turns out is Spanish for Joe Mauer): $400K
1B - Justin Morneau: $14MM
2B - Nick Punto: $4 MM
2B - Alexi Casilla: $428K
3B - Brendan Harris: $466K+
SS - J.J. Hardy: $4.6MM (Unrelated, but the Royals have a player with this name, awesome.)
IF - Matt Tolbert: $405K
LF - Delmon Young : $1.152MM+
CF - Denard Span: $435K
RF - Michael Cuddyer: $8.5MM
DH - Jason Kubel: $4.1MM

SP - Scott Baker: $3MM
SP - Nick Blackburn: $440K
SP - Kevin Slowey: $440K
SP - Glen Perkins: $430K
SP - Francisco Liriano: $430K+

RP - Joe Nathan: $11.25MM
RP - Jon Rauch: $2.9MM
RP - Jesse Crain: $1.7MM+
RP - Matt Guerrier: $1.475 MM+
RP - Pat Neshek: $440K+
RP - Brian Duensing: $400K
RP - Jose Mijares: $400K

With this roster, the Twins committed salaries stand at $74.291 MM this year, this gives them just over $15 MM to work with this offseason (again, assuming that the payroll only increases to $90 million). For the sake of simplicity, let's assume that the committed salaries increase to about $80 million after arbitration, so that gives the Twins a mere $10 million to work with.

So I guess first we should address where the Twins are weak before we talk about possible targets. One of the glaring holes is 3B. It recently came out that Gardenhire wants to resign OC, put him at 2B and then stick Punto over at third. Really?! You're going to somehow fuck up that Gomez for JJ Hardy swap? Why not I guess, you gotta get your boy Shitty Nicky Punto in there, because of his "hustle" and how he "busts his tail off". This is the worst possible scenario for 3B, which means it will probably play out...Please Bill Smith don't let Gardy influence your decision to resign OC.

Let's just assume that this doesn't come to fruition and that OC is granted his free agency and Gardy sticks Punto at 2B, which still sucks but it's clear that this suckass is going to be in our lineup, so we need a 3B.
NEED: 3B

So where else are we weak? Well I'm still not too impressed with the rotation, especially since Slowey is coming off of season ending wrist surgery and Francisco "Filthy" Liriano still struggling with his return from Tommy John. I advocate moving Liriano to the bullpen to allow him to build up confidence and regain some of the poise that he possessed in 2006. There's also the lack of a bonafide ace in the rotation, which given their lack of payroll its pretty difficult to address, but nonetheless.

Need: SP

Then there's the bullpen. Once the source of the Twins strength, the bullpen has been left unattended over the past few years and allowed to become overgrown and bloated. Jesse Crain still throws hard, unfortunately he now throws hard right into the bats of opposing batters. Joe Nathan is still Joe Nathan, although he did look a little more shaky this year than in previous, but he's still a top 3 closer in the game. Newly acquired Jon Rauch should provide a solid arm out of the pen for the next year. A healthy Pat Neshek also helps the pen quite a bit, maybe he needs to change the delivery style??? Most underrated bullpen member by quite a bit is Matt Guerrier, the guy is solid every year. SO while more depth at the RP position is always a good move, its probably the least of their concerns at this point and while it may seem like the bullpen blew the game quite a bit more this past year than in years past, it is probably a function more of riding the few reliable guys too hard rather than overall deterioration. That being said, there are definitely some moves that make sense for the Twins to do with the bullpen, including moving Liriano into it.

NEED: RP depth

Alright, so there we are. The Twins need a 3B and some pitching, and they've only got $10 million to work with. God this looks familiar....

In addition to that there is one more (probably the most important of all) thing that the Twins NEED to do before the beginning of next season, which of course is to lock up the Baby Savior for the remainder of his career. Presumably that's going to cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $120 million over 7 years, but should cement the Twins offensively for his tenure...BILL SMITH GET IT DONE ASAP.

So tomorrow we'll finish this discussion (possibly) and lay out a few options that make sense for the Twins, and some that I'd just like to see happen.



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