Day 32: How To Fix the Minnesota Twins (Part 3)

So where were we, last time I discussed the potential salary and payroll issues the Twins may experience during this upcoming offseason and running into the 2010 season. So where that left us was needing a 3B, some SP help and some bullpen help, with only $10 million in cash to work with. Today's goal is to discuss some of the potential moves the Twins could make in the very near future, and then weigh in on what moves I think they SHOULD make before Gardy fucks this all up...s'alright? S'alright.

Third Base

In-house Options (Pending Free Agents included):

• Nick Punto: Already discussed as Ron Gardenhire's preferred solution to the hot corner issue, the Twins would diverge from the traditional notion that a player with some offensive prowess be manning third. Punto is a very polarizing Twins figure, for some reason you'll find many fans who love his "hustle" and how he goes out there and gives "110 percent" among the million other cliche things that he supposedly does. Well lets talk for a minute about what he REALLY does. Last season Punto hit .228/.337/.284 with 1HR and 38 RBIs while playing the majority of his 125 games between 2B and SS with a handful of appearances at 3B. Proponents of Punto will defend his little league caliber approach to the plate by touting his ability to "flash the leather" and how he's one of the "best defensive players in the league", really? Well lets look into that too, shall we? Statistically speaking, while playing 2B last year Nick Punto ranked 17th in MLB with a UZR of 3.3, just below the likes of Juan Uribe. Similarly, while manning SS last year Punto posted a UZR of 1.7, good for the 23rd best fielding SS in MLB last year (comparable to Alfredo Amezega's 1.4). Now I realize that stats aren't everything, but they do a hell of a lot more in accurately describing a player instead of simply saying, yeah but look at his hustle...especially since there aren't hustle statistics....YET.
  
  The point of this rant was not to degrade Nick Punto, I do that enough on a regular basis that I don't need to devote more time to it (wait....didn't I just do that...), the point of this was to show that while Nick Punto's not a great player, his defense is still slightly above the league average. Given that fact, and that some Twins fans and Ron Gardenhire seem to have a permanent hard on for scrappy low talent infielders, the Twins as a team can afford one such player. However, if he is then paired in the infield, and more importantly the batting order, with another light hitting, much worse fielding player (see Orlando Cabrera) then the overall product (the Twins) is worse off for it. That is to say, for all his faults, Nick Punto is a better option at 2B than resigning OC to play 2B and slotting Punto at the hot corner.
  
  
• Joe Crede: Brought over during the 2008-2009 off season as a low risk reclamation project, the Twins offered Crede a single season incentive laden contract to play 3B. Crede has notoriously been a thorn in the sides of the entire AL Central throughout his career, making the move even more interesting. Given the relatively low salary ($2.5 million in 2009) and the relatively strong upside (.283/.323/.506 with 30 HRs in 2006) it was a good move for the Twins to pursue. Now its the 2009-2010 offseason and Crede has found himself without a job, and is likely to find the market fairly unreceptive to chronically injured 31 year old third basemen who hit a mere .225/.289/.414 and played in only 90 games in 2009...Enter the Twins. In Crede, the Twins can again take a low risk, low cost, medium upside approach to 3B and tenure him for another year. He still plays remarkable defense at 3B with a UZR of 12.5 making him the 5th best fielding 3B in MLB last year, just behind Adrian Beltre (more to come on him later). Additionally he did provide some real pop in his brief stint last year, hitting a HR in every 22.2 AB, which compares well with rookie phenom/Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man impersonator Pablo Sandoval (22.9 AB/HR). Assuming he gets no bump from last year's salary, but instead has a lower base salary of say $2 million with incentives that could drive it up to $5 million, Crede could provide the Twins with some right additional handed pop that has been lacking in the lineup the past few years.
  
  Resigning Crede certainly comes with its own risks, primarily him tweaking his back and yielding himself unable to play (see 2009, 2008, 2007). Crede has just come off of another back surgery and has said, "It seems like this time, the recovery is a lot faster. I feel great right now compared to where I was last year. I'm so much further ahead, moving around a lot better," he is also expected to be fully healthy by spring training. There's also the fact that Danny Valencia is a cheap in-house fall back plan if Crede misses significant time. Between AA and AAA last year Valencia went on to hit .285/.337/.466 with 14 HRs with a 77:39 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and has been informally crowned the Twins 3B of the future. If they do go with Joe Crede, and he gets hurt, then maybe the future comes a little sooner than planned...who's to say that won't be a good thing?

Out of House Options:

• Adrian Beltre: While playing for the Mariners over the past five seasons Beltre has averaged 21 HRs with .266/.316/.439 and 79 RBIs with a 23.7 UZR over the past 3 years. Coming off an enormous $64 million, 5 year contract with the Mariners (that was dramatically influenced by Beltre's 2004 .334/.388/.629, 48 HR extreme outlier season), he made $13.4 million in the final year of his contract. It's hard to judge the price that the 30 year old (31 by opening day) third baseman will demand, but its safe to say it will be in the neighborhood of $45 million over 4 years. Given this price and other more pressing needs, the Twins are not likely to fork over that kind of cash for a guy like Beltre. However with the recent addition of J.J. Hardy, this addition to the left side of the infield would give them one of the best defensive infields in all of baseball. Additionally it would put another right handed bat in the lineup with some solid pop. Given the fact that Beltre is a Scott Boras client, and listed Minnesota to his no-trade clause during the 2008-2009 offseason the likelihood of him wanting a to sign with Minnesota seems low.

• Chone Figgins: Chone Figgins, 32, is coming off what may be a career year hitting .298/.395/.393. His glove and speed on the basepaths would fit well with the Twins needs. The third best fielding 3B last year, with a UZR of 16.7, Figgins has already attracted interest from perennial big spenders Philadelphia and New York (Mets). He "only" made $5.775 million last year with the Angels and while older than your prototypical third baseman, he's due for a fairly dramatic pay increase this offseason. With the departure of Carlos Gomez, the Twins are in need of a little zip around the bases--preferably in the form of a guy who can get on base without having to bunt his way there. Its hard to gauge exactly how much a guy like Figgins is going to pull in on the open market, but I think its safe to assume that he'll be the highest priced free agent 3B option out there, despite his age. His ability to play multiple positions gives teams a lot of options and flexibility to throw multiple defensive lineups out there. What gets a little bit lost in simply looking at Figgins' 2009 statistics is the fact that he's been a fairly mediocre fielder in every other year of his career. This and his proclivity to getting injured, makes shelling out big dollars on a team with few dollars to go around hard to justify.
  
  
• Troy Glaus: Spending all but 14 games injured for the St. Louis Cardinals this year, Glaus has yet to live up to the expectations that came when they traded Scott Rolen for him. With his solid 2008 effort (.270/.372/.473, with 27 HRs) seemingly forgotten, he will hit the open market with a relatively low value. Now a free agent, the Cardinals seem unlikely to pursue him as even a bench spot, or that Glaus would settle nicely into such a role, in the upcoming season(s). As mentioned previously, another big right handed bat would look nice in the Twins lineup, but is Glaus really the guy here? His defense is only slightly worse than mine would be if I were to don the glove and head out there. He's really more of a DH at this point of his career than a useful fielder. His 2008 season with the Cardinals did stand out as decent with him sporting a 4.5 UZR; however, that is an extreme outlier when compared to his career UZR of -30.1. The Twins would be better off putting Cuddyer at third base pushing the inept fielding Kubel out in left field and signing Glaus to play DH for them, and even then its a questionable move.
  

Given the relatively limited number of viable options out there, this is how I would rank their potential moves (Best to Worst):

1. Crede and use Valencia as a backup plan

2. Adrian Beltre

3. Chone Figgins

4. Glaus

5. Buy a gun and two bullets

6. Place barrel of said gun to my temple

7. Pull trigger

8. Buy Windex to clean the inevitable brain matter spray

9. Put Punto at 3B

Tomorrow I will be discussing the starting pitching options...I bet you're on the edge of your seat right now, eh?