Day 34: How to Fix the Minnesota Twins (Part 5)

Yesterday's discussion focused primarily on where the Twins are now; accordingly, today's discussion will focus on where the Twins might be, or at least what their realistic options are.

FA Targets

• Carl Pavano
  
  Coming over from Indians in mid-season, Pavano went on to pitch his best season in recent memory, finishing with a career high 33 starts. Though nothing stellar, he provided the Twins with some much needed stability coming over at the beginning of August. 2009 was one of just a few seasons in his 11 year career in which he didn't miss any significant time due to injury (he missed a majority of 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008). He was supposed to be a staple for the Yankees when he was signed as a free agent by the Yankees during the 04-05 offseason, shoring up the back of that rotation. But after being rendered relatively useless to the Evil Empire for the course of his contract, he was the target of the ire of both Bronx fans and players and fled for the more receptive confines of Cleveland in 2009. He now has free agency to deal with but has been quoted as saying he's comfortable in Minnesota and enjoyed his stay there, and would like to stay longer if the deal is right. Given the relatively high injury risk that comes with Pavano it makes sense for the Twins to be somewhat hesitant, but if they can rope him into a 3 year deal at somewhere in the neighborhood of a three year $14 million dealn, then they should pursue that course of action.
  
  
• Justin Duchscherer
  
  The "Duke of Hurl" spent all of the 2009 season on what was essentially sabbatical recovering from what has been described as "clinical depression". The only person that should have been more depressed than him is me, since I decided to list him as a "keeper" in my fantasy league. In 2008, he completed his transition from the bullpen to a starting pitcher for the Athletics and thrived. In 141.2 IP as a starter, he's posted a 2.45 ERA with a 95:34 K:BB ratio, but only won 10 games as a result of the paltry run support in Oakland. Out of the pen he'd combined for a 3.44 ERA in 295 IP over the course of 6 seasons. He's never been a prolific strikeout pitcher, but he has always avoided the walk, induced enough ground balls, all while avoiding the long ball and has posted great numbers as a result. It's hard to gauge what the South Dakota native might earn on the open market, but I think the 3 year $10-15 million range is reasonable enough, especially given the shadiness of the 2009 season. The team that eventually signs this righty is going to be getting a high value player at an exceptionally low cost, and while he may not be that definitive ace that the Twins are looking for he sure would sure as hell look better in the Twinstripes than, say, Jarrod Washburn.
  
  
• Noah Lowry
  
  Once a possible trade candidate for Delmon Young, Noah Lowry now hits the free agent market with less value than he had at the time of the trade rumors. The one-time highly touted pitcher isn't a strikeout pitcher, per se, but he does command a very nasty change-up that he uses as his out pitch. In 2005 he pitched to a respectable 7.58 K/9 IP, and pitched 205.2 innings on his way to what should have been a break out 2006 season. However, his strikeout numbers falling to around 5 K/9 IP in the 2006 and 2007 seasons. Lowry didn't pitch in 2008 or 2009 due to a nagging injury, which was diagnosed as thoracic outlet sydrome (bahr?) but has apparently recovered enough from it to pitch in the up coming season. The Giants declined his $6.25 million option and at 29 years old, Lowry is left to test the open market. Its not hard to believe that he'll fetch some interest from the typical East Coast dog and pony show, but he should get some consideration from Bill Smith, if for nothing else than that he's a Pepperdine alum Dan Haren's old roommate.
  
  
• Randy Wolf
  
  Another Pepperdine alumni (you'll notice my unexplainable man/school-crush on the Waves of Pepperdine as time goes by), Randy Wolf posted a 11-7 record with a 3.23 ERA in 2009 in 34 starts for the Dodgers in 2009. Wolf's '09 tperformance has likely priced out the Twins; however, Wolf may actually be one of those pitchers who's pitching skills are vastly overstated by his statistics. Wolf posted the best season of his career since 2002 when he was still pitching with the Phillies. Wolf benefited greatly by pitching in the pitching friendly confines of Dodgers Stadium this past season and is nearly a surefire candidate for a regression this upcoming season. After netting nearly $5 million in 2009, the 33 year old pitcher is likely to be in line for a contract in the neighborhood of $22 million for 3-4 years. So not only would he be a bad target for the Twins from a talent and monetary standpoint, given that he lives in Los Angeles full-time in Slash's old house its also very unlikely he'd leave even if the Twins did express interest.
  

There are other options out there, and given some recent news, it sounds likely that the Twins may end up signing Jarrod Washburn (yes, really), so these four guys are probably not going to end up getting any consideration from ole Billy Smith and the gang.