Monday, March 15, 2010

Day 62: Hot Air, High Speeds (Part 1)

The sun was just starting to permeate the venetian blinds of the his studio apartment as James awoke a little late that morning, slightly agitated that his alarm clock didn't wake him up. He looked at the black Casio LCD screen, picked it up and pretended to scold it before letting it off the hook by setting it back on the nightstand next to his futon bed. He hadn't slept well the night before so 5:45 AM felt especially early this morning; maybe it was a blessing the alarm hadn't gone off. James leaped out of bed into the kitchen, started a pot of coffee and then jumped into the shower.

He left his studio that morning wearing a shoddy looking overcoat, some worn trousers and his favorite blue and grey checkered sweater, carrying a battle-worn brown leather briefcase. By the time he left that morning it was already 7:00 AM, exactly one hour later than he had originally planned. He wasn't worried though, he had a lot to do this morning, but a sense of calm had come over him. He would be late for work, but he didn't care. He took a swig out of his coffee mug and walked down the rickety steel spiral staircase from his upstairs apartment down to his parking spot.

The sky blue paint of his Prius was noticeably tainted by the black and white calling cards of passing by birds. This annoyed him, but he appreciated the irony in nature literally shitting on his "green car". He set the coffee mug atop the roof of the car, opened the door and threw the briefcase into the passenger seat to the sound of his phone ringing. Frank Sinatra's "New York, New York" played muffled from inside his handbag. He quickly sat down into the car popped open the briefcase, fished through the piles of file folders and loose binder clipped reports to find the phone. He didn't recognize the number, but he knew who it was.

"Sikes here," he answered in his more formal than usual tone. He nodded his head to the voice on the other end as if the caller could somehow acknowledge his gesture.

"I know, I told you it's fine. I'll be there, just make sure you carry out your end of the deal. I don't want..." He was interrupted by the caller.

"Alright, listen I've got to go, if I'm too late they'll be worried, and I don't need the extra attention," he said, clearly agitated by the caller on the other end. He paused for a moment, listening to the caller, who's tone had taken a much louder inflection.

"Okay don't worry I'll take care of it. I'll call you when it's over," James said as he hung up. "Fuckin' son of a bitch, just leave me the fuck alone!" he screamed from within the vehicle, falling on deaf ears. He sat for a minute, wiped his perspiring face with his hands and then backed out of his parking spot. He meticulously navigated the narrow parking lot while looking over his right shoulder, then double-checking it by using the back-up camera built into the dashboard of his vehicle. He threw the car in drive and stealthily lurched forward. As he took the right turn out of his parking lot he saw something out of the corner of his left eye. The coffee cup he'd forgotten on the roof took a slow motion half-parabolic path down to the ground as it shattered on the asphalt. He slammed on the brakes, thinking he'd stop to pick it up, but quickly realized the futility in such an effort as he sped off.

As he drove to work, the image of the coffee mug shattering on the ground just a few feet away from him replayed in his mind. Why had he forgotten the mug on his roof? He'd had that mug for over 10 years now. "PAR for the Course" was printed in bold yellow lettering on the Kelly green mug, commemorating the first time he'd shot an even PAR at his Country Club. The mug itself wasn't worth a damn, but it was a connection to his former life; yet another of the many that were seemingly severed on a daily basis. He resented his new studio apartment, he resented the part-time job he was forced to take to pay the bills, he missed his old life. He missed his boat, he missed his fairway view from atop his canyon-side estate. He even missed living with Patty.

They had been married twelve years now and were in the midst of the roughest patch of the twelve. Things had always been easy between them, there had always been a great rapport between the two of them; people frequently commented on how easy going their marriage was and lamented upon the contrast to their own. That was then. Since the financial crisis of 2007, James had lost over 85% of his net worth, including all of those perks he once proudly flaunted. His house had been lost to foreclosure a few months ago and Patty went back to live with her mother. It had been almost three months, and while they were actually starting to patch things up it wasn't the same. He felt like a college dropout living in a shitty studio apartment in the worst part of the run-down city of El Cajon. Meanwhile Patty was living in La Jolla near the beach with her 80-year old parents.

Her parents had always disapproved of James. They said he was too much of a risk, and that she should hold out and marry a "sure thing", something that she liked to point out, like clockwork, in the middle of their fights. Maybe they were right though, maybe he was a risk. Lord knows these past few years had taken their toll and he was by no means a "sure thing"; but he had always resented this. He'd spent his formative years building his own wealth, he was never given anything, never asked for a handout and never demanded anything of anyone else besides that they work their tails off just as he did. He had built a real estate empire from a start-up run out of their basement. In a span of four years, he'd gone from making just enough to pay the rent in their condo to pulling down nearly seven figures a year. All of that was now gone, he was a "victim" of speculation and the volatility of the real estate bubble. As fast as he had built his empire, it came tumbling down even faster. Within a span of six months, he had lost millions and had his entire was life swept out from underneath him.

As he pulled into the Westfield Mall parking lot he couldn't help but wonder what he had done to deserve this. He had been a devout Christian his whole life, he'd lived his life according to the bible. He'd given money to George W. Bush and the local food shelf. He'd organized a Christmas toy drive for underprivileged children. He'd gone to church most Sundays, at least before the collapse. He had felt like he'd been forsaken, and he couldn't understand why.

As he donned his blue smock with the bright yellow smiley face sticker on the red, white and blue name tag he caught a glimpse of himself in the reflection off of the passenger side window. "What happened to you?" he asked himself as he shook his head and exited the car. The dim yellow sodium lighting of the parking garage illuminated the path to the elevator. He felt nearly as gloomy as his surroundings. He had a lot on his mind these days, but today his mind was racing even more than usual. Today was the day that things would finally turn around for him. Today was the beginning of the comeback.

*****

As the day wore on, James knew the time for his redemption was quickly approaching. He spent the morning unloading boxes of discount clothing and snack foods; using a forklift to lift a pallets of Hanes-Her-Way and Pringle's boxes down from the truck bed to their masking tape marked resting spot on the stockroom floor. Everything had to be arranged to a plan-o-gram.

"A place for everything and everything in its place," his floor manager told him during his first few hours on the job. He'd hated that saying before and loathed it now. "You know you're way overqualified for this position, don't you Sikes?" the gristled faced manager facetiously prodded.

"Thanks Bill, I hadn't noticed. I appreciate your candor though," James said as he walked away. "Fuckin' prick," he muttered under his breath.

"What's that?" Bill responded, knowing that James wouldn't respond.

For two months now, James had driven to Wal-Mart from his studio apartment, everyday, and put in his ten hour shift. He got thirty minutes for lunch and thirty minutes for dinner with a few discretionary smoke or bathroom breaks interspersed between. He hated his job. But with the economy the way it was, there wasn't a huge market for failed real estate investors at the moment. So he took the stockroom job as a means of paying the rent on his god-damned studio apartment and to make the monthly payments on his Prius. The payments stood as a stark reminder of his previous life, why he didn't just pay for it in cash he still doesn't understand. He's sure that top trim package seemed like a good idea at the time, when money was just another thing he had too much of, but now he can't understand why he opted for leather seat warmers in San Diego. When the fuck was he thinking?

He felt the vibration of his phone in his pocket as he took it out and read the text message. It read:

"MAKE IT BELIEVABLE OR NO DEAL. DON'T FUCK THIS UP GRANDPA!"

"All caps. That's annoying," he thought to himself. "Who are these people, I can't wait to be done with this, just one more day and we're back James, just keep it together."

It was nearly lunchtime, which meant that his plan was about to go into action. In a few hours he'd be back on top, and his life would finally be on the upswing. He didn't like to deal with such dishonest people, but he felt that what he was doing actually served a larger purpose. He felt that by this one simple action, given the timing of the event, it would right the economy, thereby making it possible for J.S. Realty to re-open and begin anew. Not to mention the cash they were paying him. The $400,000 they promised would go a long way in ensuring his startup is successful, turns out that kind of money can still do a lot if you used it right. He'd get the cash from them in a few days and then he'd start looking for office space. If only he'd be able to tell Patty that they could soon be together again, that all of this could end in just a few hours. Telling her was far too dangerous, he couldn't tell anyone what he was planning. If even one person knew the truth, this could all be for naught; he couldn't risk it.

He took the elevator back down to the parking lot and lit a cigarette as he walked towards his car. He'd always hated smoking, his mother died of lung cancer and he'd always hated how Patty smelled and tasted after she smoked. He'd recently taken it up, and he finally understood what all those people meant about it being a stress reliever. He didn't smoke often, maybe two or three cigarettes a week. Sometimes he'd smoke a cigarette and sip some Windsor on the rocks from a paper cup before bed, Glenmorangie it was not, but it got the job done. He only took a few drags of the smoke before extinguishing it beneath his boot as he approached his car.

He got into his Prius looking it over for a moment, before hitting the Start button and leaving work. He normally didn't take a lunch break, except for maybe brown-bagging it in the break room, but there wasn't much that was normal about today. He took his phone out, found Patty's number, looked it at it retrospectively and contemplated calling her. He hit the "Call" button and let it ring once before thinking better and hung up the phone. "Not yet, call her later," he said aloud to himself. As he was waiting to exit the parking ramp, the solitary incessant clicking of his right turn signal sounded like the ticking of a giant clock counting down the seconds until his release from this hellish existence. He pushed the CD button as "Casey Jones" by The Grateful Dead erupted loudly over his speakers and he took his right turn out of the parking ramp.

*****
James accelerated onto Interstate 8 and merged into a relatively light traffic, turned down the stereo volume and hit the repeat button on the CD player. Casey Jones began to play again as James stepped onto the accelerator taking his speed from 45 MPH up to 95 MPH within a few moments. He looked merged all the way over to the left lane, pulled out his phone and dialed "911".

"Help me, I can't stop my car!" James screamed over his cellphone as the sky blue Prius careened down the road. "I'm stepping on the brakes and its not doing anything, please send help!" he screamed with a convincing cadence of fear in his voice.

"Sir where are you, please try to pull your vehicle to the side of the road," the dispatcher said in a calming voice. "Have you tried applying the brakes?"

"I'm in El Cajon, westbound on The 8, and of course I've tried braking, what are you dense?"

A few moments passed as he steered around cars weaving back and forth between the two leftmost lanes. The sound of police sirens faintly catching up to him could be heard over the roar of the engine.

Trouble ahead, trouble behind
And you know that notion, just crossed my mind

The sound of The Grateful Dead could be faintly made out in the background. James had a strange air of calmness around him, especially since even a slight miscalculation and he'd roll his car, killing himself or possibly someone else. He was reassured numerous times that this would be a "sure thing", that once this was over with, they'd give him the money and he'd be on his way back to his normal life. Soon this would all be over and he'd be back with Patty sipping on martinis talking about that one missed putt or chip and how Doug Albers needs to shave before coming into the formal dining room at the Country Club.

"Sir, SIR," the 911-dispatcher jolted him out of his daze, "We have four officers coming to assist your situation. Please try to maintain stability of the car and stay in the left most lane so the officers may assist. Have you tried turning the car off or putting it in neutral or pulling the parking brake?"

"I'm trying to keep control of the vehicle!" James yelled, essentially ignoring the dispatcher's suggestions. "My brakes are almost burned out!" he continued.

James had spent the past few weeks driving his car at high speeds and braking quickly, driving around with the parking brake applied and accelerating the car with his left foot compressing the brake pedal slightly. The goal was to wear out his brakes to the point that they would look like they were worn completely, this way his story would look more legit later.

The cops were now directly behind him, he could hear the loudspeaker, "Sir, try to slowly steer your car in the direction of the Jersey Barrier." James feigned a slight fishtail motion which sent his car into a minor swerve, but he kept it under control. The cops were now taking positions to his right, behind him and directly in front of him in hopes of slowing the vehicle down enough to cut the power safely. This was all happening exactly as they had said it would. James navigated the vehicle to a stop by simply letting off the gas pedal and emerged from the Prius with his best terror stricken look on his face. He walked over to the police and hugged one of them, exclaiming that they saved his life. He then fell to his knees and began weeping. It was done.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Day 61: Are Batters Better? (Fantasy Baseball Discussion Part 3)


Yesterday I discussed one possible outcome of going pitcher heavy early in your fantasy baseball draft, today will be focused on the contrary. Hitters will be taken early and often, and hopefully by the end of today's discussion a clear picture of the differences in the two strategies will be brought to light.

I assumed the same size draft and same drafting position as yesterday (6th spot in a 10 team draft).

1st Rd, 6th Pick (6th overall) - Matt Kemp (OF)
2nd Rd, 5th Pick (15th overall) - David Wright (3B)
3rd Rd, 6th Pick (26th overall)- Jimmy Rollins (SS)
4th Rd, (35th overall) - Brandon Phillips (2B)
5th Rd, (46th overall) - Justin Morneau (1B)
6th Rd, (55th overall) - Curtis Granderson (OF)
7th Rd, (66th overall) - Jon Lester (SP)
8th Rd, (75th overall) - Josh Beckett (SP)
9th Rd, (86th overall) - Cole Hamels (SP)
10th Rd, (95th overall) - Matt Cain (SP)
11th Rd, (106th overall) - Jair Jurrjens (SP)
12th Rd, (115th overall) - Carlos Gonzalez (OF)
13th Rd, (126th overall) - Francisco Cordero (CP)
14th Rd, (135th overall) - Kurt Suzuki (C)
15th Rd, (146th overall) - Alex Rios (OF)
16th Rd, (155th overall) - Ben Sheets (SP)
17th Rd, (166th overall) - David Aardsma (CP)
18th Rd, (175th overall) - Vladimir Guerrero (UTIL)
19th Rd, (186th overall) - Ted Lilly (SP)
20th Rd, (195th overall) - Trevor Hoffman (CP)
21st Rd, (206th overall) - David Price (SP)
22nd Rd, (215th overall) - J.A. Happ (SP)
23rd Rd, (226th overall) - Phil Hughes (SP)


As mentioned already, this is the heavy bats approach, so here I tried to avoid taking a pitcher for as long as possible while taking as many big bats as possible. I opted for Matt Kemp in the first round because of his potential. He spent most of the season last year being juggled around by Joe Torre batting in all spots in the lineup before finally winding up batting 3-4 for the last third of the season. If he managed to put up monster numbers while being jerked around like that, I am 100% positive that he can put up even bigger numbers while batting cleanup the entire season.

Given that I opted for an OF in the first round the next few rounds I planned on making up for it by drafting prime bats at "rare" positions; hence, David Wright, Jimmy Rollins and Brandon Phillips. So four rounds into the draft and I've got four guys capable of 25/25 or better and a nearly completed infield. Round 5 gave me my obligatory Twins player, Justin Morneau, who's got good power and he's an RBI machine while posting a good batting average.

After taking another 25/25 candidate in Granderson to fill another spot in the outfield I felt that it might be best to start drafting a pitcher. SO here we are 6 rounds into the draft and I have every position filled except for my catcher; I had originally thought about a catcher here but there wasn't anyone I was willing to take this early so it was finally time to start building my rotation. At this point every other team had already drafted a pitcher so I was definitely playing catchup, but with my next five picks I drafted SP/SP/SP/SP/SP. Now the nucleus of my rotation consisted of Lester/Beckett/Hamels/Cain/Jurrjens, considering I hadn't drafted a pitcher till the sixth round I'm pretty content with that as an initial base rotation.

I was now in a point where I no longer felt like I had to draft another pitcher, so I grabbed Carlos Gonzalez (a player I'm really big on coming into this year). I've got Gonzalez slated for a 25/25 type year with big AVG/R/RBI numbers. Why take him so late then? Because he's going to be available, so why would you overpay if you don't have to? The next few rounds I spent filling out roster needs, with CoCo (I've already established my feeling on him), Suzuki (very solid catcher for the 14th round), Alex Rios (a potential "bounce back" candidate on a better offensive team). So by the 15th round my roster was completed (save for an additional closer) and I got to spend the next 7 rounds drafting bench players (which consisted primarily of starting pitching).

I snaked a couple more closers later in the draft (Hoffman and Aardsma) mostly because neither of them are sure things, but they both could be big contributors to SV/ERA/WHIP, assuming years even similar to last year. The last few rounds were spent drafting the same sort of players I ended up drafting in the "Pitcher Heavy" draft yesterday.

All in all I'm pretty damn happy with the results of this draft. My primary aces would probably end up being Lester and Cain, since Beckett's likely due for a nasty case of the "blisters" again this year, but the supporting rotation I ended up being able to snag is pretty good. I was even able to snag a few high upside type pitchers in Sheets, Hughes, and Happ while drafting the ever sturdy but incredibly boring Ted Lilly.

I'll save my decision on which of these two drafts I actually prefer in my next Fantasy Baseball discussion, but I hope that this at least sparks some interest for those of you that are (possibly) reading this...although I'm guessing the ratio of people who started reading this versus the numbers of people who FINISHED reading this is pretty high...Oh well.

So, are Batters Better?

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Day 60: Pitching the Pitchers (Fantasy Baseball Discussion Part 2)


When it comes to draft day there are a few different strategies that people tend to employ, and there are two different schools of thought when it comes to the prioritization of players in the early rounds of the draft. In the one corner you've got those people who tend towards the big bats in the early rounds, where players like Mark Teixeira, Arod, Evan Longoria and their brethren tend to to be drafted, and then in the other corner you've got the guy who would take Tim Lincecum with the 6th pick of the draft.

I personally tend to be in the former of those two corners, and I can't understand the mindset of someone who is of a different mindset than myself. Today's post isn't to convince you whether either methodology is right, or even worthwhile, but rather to compare and contrast the results of the two different schools of thought, and then allow you to decide which you prefer. My plan is to illustrate these differences by comparing two mock drafts, and then to try and objectively discuss the two different outcomes.

Today I will discuss the results of a "Pitchers Early" methodology.

I chose to go with a 10 team draft, and took the #6 spot with the hopes of getting Tiny Tim, but without inducing too much volatility into the draft.

Here are my draft results--in addition I'll highlight a few aberrations or other points of interest as well.

1st Rd, 6th Pick (6th overall) - Tim Lincecum (SP)
2nd Rd, 5th Pick (15th overall) - Roy Halladay (SP)
3rd Rd, 6th Pick (26th overall)- Troy Tulowitzki (SS) <-- This is nuts
4th Rd, (35th overall) - Victor Martinez (C)
5th Rd, (46th overall) - Dustin Pedroia (2B) <-- Great Value
6th Rd, (55th overall) - Nick Markakis (OF)
7th Rd, (66th overall) - Shin-Soo Choo (OF)
8th Rd, (75th overall) - Nelson Cruz (OF)
9th Rd, (86th overall) - Chad Billingsley (SP)
10th Rd, (95th overall) - Carlos Pena (1B)
11th Rd, (106th overall) - Andrew Bailey (CP)
12th Rd, (115th overall) - Brett Anderson (SP)
13th Rd, (126th overall) - Jair Jurrjens (SP)
14th Rd, (135th overall) - Vladimir Guerrero (UTIL)
15th Rd, (146th overall) - Kevin Slowey (SP)
16th Rd, (155th overall) - Francisco Cordero (CP)
17th Rd, (166th overall) - Gordon Beckham (3B)
18th Rd, (175th overall) - Rajai Davis (OF)
19th Rd, (186th overall) - Ted Lilly (SP)
20th Rd, (195th overall) - Mark Buehrle (SP)
21st Rd, (206th overall) - David Price (SP)
22nd Rd, (215th overall) - Homer Bailey (SP)
23rd Rd, (226th overall) - Johnny Cueto (SP)


The one major issue I noticed while taking this sort of style drafting, is that I felt like I was constantly playing catchup with offense. While doing so I felt like the advantage I had gained in pitching initially had been lost by the 8th round simply because I wasn't able to comfortably take another pitcher yet. My 9th round pick had to be a SP in order to keep from falling behind, but by doing so this left me with gaping holes at 1B and 3B, with still no closers taken. So I relented and ended up taking Billingsley.

This left me with no choice but to take a 1B or 3B in the 10th round. Fortunately, by the 10th round there was a surprisingly decent pool of 1B's left with Carlos Pena, Billy Butler and Lance Berkman available; however, the 3B pool wasn't as deep. The best available options according to Yahoo were Ian Stewart, Chipper Jones, Gordan Beckham and Jorge Cantu. Given that I had holes at both positions, and that all of those options at the hot corner suck (or would certainly be available at later rounds) I opted for the power provided by Pena (even though he hurts me on average). The way I figured it, Pena is in a contract year and players have a strange knack of having career years during their walk year.

I then followed that up with a closer (Andrew Bailey) who wouldn't just give me saves, but would also have a K/9 IP rate with a low ERA/WHIP contributions. So after 11 rounds, I'm feeling pretty good with a nearly full roster (besides the 3B and a UTIL) spot I decided to start bolstering the rotation a bit more. I then went with the potential breakout Brett Anderson and the ERA/WHIP machine Jair Jurrjens. As it stands at this point I've got a lot of high K/9 type starting pitchers and a few control artists in Jair and Andrew Bailey. My bats needed a little power boost yet so I opted for Vlady at this point since his new home in Arlington should provide him with a pretty decent boost in HRs along with a pretty potent lineup around him.

The next few rounds were spent grabbing yet another SP in Slowey (my obligatory Twins player) along with my second closer in the incredibly underrated Francisco "CoCo" Cordero. This guy throws up 35+ saves every damn year but never gets any respect from the fantasy community, so I'll gladly scoop him up in the 16th round.

In the 17th I finally got my 3B in the semi-sleeper Gordon Beckham. I'd expect numbers along the lines of 90 R/85 RBI/22 HR/5 SB/.270 AVG from him, so considering I could have drafted him in the 10th and he's got an average draft position of 133.5, this was a high value pick. My next pick was to grab the speedy Rajai Davis, as mentioned here already once I'm big on this guy this year as a poor man's Ellsbury so to get him in the 18th round I was pretty pumped.

With my last 5 picks I spent them all on bolstering my roster depth. I drafted more ERA/WHIP stability with Lilly along with some un-sexy veteran consistency in Mark Buerhle. The other three picks were spent on high upside, low risk picks. Last year I drafted Cueto somewhere near the 14th round and he delivered incredible value for about 65% of the season, so I'm willing to take a flier on this guy again this year. As far as David Price and Homer Bailey, well Homer I've got a slight man-crush on, so this was slightly predictable but to get the incredibly talented David Price in the 21st round when the next best options were the likes of Bronson Arroyo or Andy Sonnanstine, I'm going with the young incredibly high upside guy every single time.

Okay so all in all I felt the draft went pretty well, I'm going to save any particular criticisms or praises on this draft until after the other mock draft. But suffice it to say, if this was my team going into the season I'd have a hard time complaining too much about it.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Day 59: Weekly Music Review: Yeasayer - Odd Blood

I skipped a week of reviews, so here's this week gets two music reviews.

Although I hadn't heard of this Brooklyn trio, I took its recommendation from NME.com and gave it a whirl. As it turned out I had heard the song Ambling Alp before and thought it was catchy, but had no idea who sang it or what it was called. Yeasayer seems to be building on the growing trend of bands that are basically tributes or throwbacks to the 80's pop music only without the shitty 80's synth-pop haircuts or keytars. Some of the lyrics on this album are downright questionable, Ambling Alp appears to be about a f*cking 30's style boxer (think Soda Popinski) and a "wise" father giving advice to "Stick up for yourself son, Never mind what anybody else done". Yeah the lyrics aren't strong, but the songs are pretty addicting. This is the definition of a "grower" album, and while its not the best album of the year (by any means) it is a noteworthy NROP album.

Rating: 7.0 / 10


Monday, March 8, 2010

Day 58: Weekly Music Review: The Morning Benders - Big Echo


The third full album from this widely unknown Berkeley band was one of my most anticipated albums coming into the year. Their last album Talking Through Tin Cans was released in 2008 to much critical acclaim, although that failed to translate to anything tangible from a popularity perspective. The reason for their obscurity probably comes down to timing, they've got a sound that's in line with MGMT, Vampire Weekend and their ilk. While those bands are now some of the most popular indie/alternative bands out there (Vampire Weekend's second SNL appearance just capped what was maybe the best episode of the season this past weekend), at the time of their first album release this wasn't a very well recognized or accepted genre. The Morning Benders released their last album just before this new wave of "beach punk" became mainstream. Now that the genre has infiltrated the zeitgeist of modern rock, I fully expect this to be their most successful (sales-wise) album.

Now with all that being said, how does the album stack up musically? Well to be honest, I'm not sure its their best release. The vocals are outstanding as usual, Christopher Chu has one of the best voices in the business. However, I feel as though it gets a little bit caught up itself in parts especially during the songs Pleasure Sighs and Cold War; but there are most definitely some gems on this album as well. The two primary singles Excuses and Promises are definite highlights, and are certainly best played at very high volumes. There are a few other very strong tracks as well, Hand Me Downs has been getting a lot of repetition, and Stitches is my most listened to song on my iPhone right now. All in all this is a very solid release, and given the current state of music this seems like a no brainer home run album.

Rating: 8.5 / 10



Monday, March 1, 2010

Day 57: Reaching for Steals (Fantasy Baseball Discussion Part 1)


Alright well as many as you've probably gathered already (especially given my 5 part Twins Blog series back a month or so ago), I'm a big baseball fan. Not only that, I'm also a huge fantasy baseball fan, if any of you are asking the following questions: Why?, What's that? Fantasy whatnow? You can probably go ahead and skip today's post, but anyway like I said fantasy baseball and I get along quite well. Its a way for me to bide my time during lulls at work during the summer and obsess over which Outfielder's BABIP is an illusion and which is right on target. For those of you who don't know what Fantasy Baseball (or any fantasy sports really) is, just imagine Dungeons & Dragons, but with sports...that's the basic premise. While not as scoffed at, at its heart its just as nerdy as a bunch of acne bespeckled adolescents sitting around their mom's kitchen table throwing 20-sided dice and talking about Liches and Kobolds, and all of the players of fantasy sports would be lying to themselves if they thought otherwise. For some reason society is more accepting of a roleplaying game (which at the core, Fantasy Sports really are an RPG where you're the manager of a sports team) that involves sports than it is of an RPG involving quests and awkward sexual advances between imaginary characters. I'm not sure why, but I don't care either.

Now that I've settled that its time to talk Fantasy Baseball. This year will be the fourth season of my 5-year keeper league and I'm coming into the year either first or second in the dynasty rankings (depending on who's scoring system is used), along with that I'll be in my two other leagues so you can be there will be more Fantasy Baseball talk as the year rolls on, especially once the season gets underway. Whats the point of me illustrating this? To show that I'm in three very involved leagues and to prop up my self esteem.

So I had a recent discussion with another "so-called" Fantasy Baseball nerd about how to distinguish the value of certain statistics--particularly the Stolen Base. Now the type of league I usually play is a standard 5x5 head-to-head (R, RBI, HR, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP), so maybe this discussion isn't valid for all types of leagues, but for this particular type of league it is a noteworthy analysis (at least in my humble opinion). Anyway, we were discussing how SB's translate to contributions in other categories, much as in the same way HR's translate to RBI/R/HR/AVG. After a little back and forth, we decided that the only real (measurable) contribution would be reflected in Runs--but not just any Runs would do. We were concerned solely with runs scored as a direct result of stealing a base, meaning if a player steals a base and is eventually waved around to score. So our question was is that stolen base more valuable than a stolen base that never resulted in a run?

Why is this important info? Why care about what happens besides the stolen base? Well the simple answer is wouldn't you rather have a player on your roster who's steals would eventually lead to more runs than a player who steals a lot, but in garbage time? So we compiled a list of all of the MLB players who stole 30 or more bags in the 2009 season (30 or more just to limit the amount of man hours required to compile this), and the players who met this criteria were (along with their 2009 totals):
  • Jacoby Ellsbury, SB: 70 / R: 94
  • Michael Bourn, SB: 61 / R: 97
  • Carl Crawford, SB: 60 / R: 96
  • Chone Figgins, SB: 42 / R: 114
  • BJ Upton, SB: 42 / R: 79
  • Nyjer Morgan, SB: 42 / R: 74
  • Rajai Davis, SB: 41 / R: 65
  • Matt Kemp, SB: 34 / R: 97
  • Elvis Andrus, SB: 33 / R: 72
  • Ian Kinsler, SB: 31 / R: 101
  • Jimmy Rollins, SB: 31 / R: 100
  • Derek Jeter, SB: 30 / R: 107
  • Bobby Abreu, SB: 30 / R: 96
  • Brian Roberts, SB: 30 / R: 110
  • Juan Pierre, SB: 30 / R: 57
  • Jason Bartlett, SB: 30 / R: 90
From this, a game-by-game breakdown of each of the players stats was performed and a count was kept comparing the number of times a player stole a base and scored a run in a game versus the number of times that player stole a base and did not steal a run (we're calling this SB2R%). A plot of SB2R% is shown below.
So the average of the sixteen players was that 56.4% of the time they stole a base in a game they also scored a run in that game. Which I guess if you think of it, that's about right since most of the steals will be stealing second and I'll float a guess that about half the time a runner gets to second (assuming a non 2-out situation) that they'll score is somewhere in the neighborhood of 50%, and is more-or-less backed up by this link.

So whats the take away here? Well I guess its that the correlation between stolen bases and resulting runs isn't as direct as you'd imagine. It also shows that a few guys who are the prototypical stolen base sources aren't as productive (in terms of run output) on the basepaths as you'd imagine. For instance, look at Ellsbury, only 59% of the 70 steals were actually converted into a run; while that is somewhat impressive, given that the average is 56.4% its somewhat less impressive. Take Ellsbury's 59% and then compare that to someone like Michael Bourn. Michael Bourn's ADP this year is 85 while Ellsbury is getting drafted 19th. What's the deal there? Or why not Rajai Davis (ADP: 162)? I mean here is the direct comparison between these players, where's the 70 and 150 pick disparity coming from?

Jacoby Ellsbury: 624 ABs, .301 AVG, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 94 R, 70 SB
Michael Bourn: 606 ABs, .285 AVG, 3 HR, 35 RBI, 97 R, 61 SB
Rajai Davis: 390 ABs, .305 AVG, 3 HR, 48 RBI, 65 R, 41 SB

Why did I pick Davis? Look at the number of At-Bats, its just over half. So lets pretend for a moment that Davis had 600 ABs and everything extrapolated linearly, which we all know it always does, what would Davis' 2009 line look like then?

Rajai Davis: 600 ABs, .305 AVG, 5 HR, 74 RBI, 100 R, 63 SB

Isn't that worth something? Is this guy really 150 picks worse than Ellsbury? I don't think so...

One last thing, I also took a look at the correlation between the times when a player steals more than one bag in a game which would result in more than one run that game. For example, if Jacoby Ellsbury stole two bags in one game and those steals resulted in 2 runs, then he'd get more credit for that. In the first comparison Ellsbury would only get credit if he scored a run in that game while also stealing a bag, it actually diluted the effect of multiple steal games. The plot below illustrates a comprehensive comparison.


The only major difference between the two plots is that this seems to further credit two players in particular, Chone Figgins & Michael Bourn. Meaning when these guys steal those steals are most often turned into runs.

I guess the point of all of this was to put some doubt into your mind when it comes to these "automatic" stolen base guys like Crawford, Ellsbury and Pierre. I think its worthwhile to look elsewhere if you're targeting a big steals guy, and I know come draft day I'll be looking forward to Rajai Davis in the 10th round much more than I'll be looking forward to Ellsbury in the second.