Monday, November 30, 2009

Day 38: Vampires Suck


So its been two and a half weeks since the newest shit stain Twilight Trilogy movie came out and its racked up an amazing (and sadly sadly pathetic) $231 million in America. Now I'm fairly convinced that by now I'm the only person in America that is not just apathetic about this suddenly "hip" vampire phenomenon, I actually kind of hate it. Since when did vampires become the most popular thing ever? Where did this Twilight bullshit come from? True Blood, I can't really comment on you, but based on the ten minutes of one episode I did watch I can say that it does have some things in common with Twilight...both have terrible fucking acting. It's really not just that these vampires are whiny, white-faced tweens that really bothers me, its also that I can't think of who to blame for this new wave of vampire suckitude. I'd blame the former administration or the radical right wing party, but by doing so I'd have to concede that they could have actually made it through the some 3,000 pages of Stephanie Myers drivel--and as mentioned before we know that's simply not possible.

Vampires used to be cool, when I was growing up we had The Lost Boys, Bram Stoker's Dracula, Interview with a Vampire, Simon Belmont in the Castlevania video games, even the vampiric father on the Munsters. Vampires weren't these white faced Emo hipster twats walking around shirtless and crying about a girl they can't be with. My vampires are bad asses, they don't take shit from anyone, especially fourteen year old wolf boys.

The vampires I knew wouldn't mope around all night and sulk themselves to sleep during the day while cradling a lock of their crush's hair and listening to Adia by Sarah McLachlan. Ab-so-lutely fucking not! The vampires I grew up knowing would break into the window of their mopey crush and bite the shit out of her neck. Only once he was convinced that she was going to also turn into a vampire, he'd leave her room go down the hall and bite the shite out of her parents and brothers and sisters necks turning them all into vampires (and presumably some sort of harem). This newly vampirized family would then continue to feast on all households in the vicinity until their neighborhoods were dry and then they'd move on to the next small foggy hamlet (which is always just over the hill).

These vampires were psychotic murderers who's purpose in life was to feed on the living, that was it...why did this have to change? Why oh why Stephanie Myers did you have to mix the vampires and Dawson's Creek? Why do these vampires have to be Emo? Did they listen to to much of The Cure or some other crappy newer Emo band? You've now tainted the genre, nobody can say the word vampire without thinking of your Twilight books...Of course that's what you were going for...but damn you!

I guess what this really boils down to is that these movies aren't targeted towards me, I can handle that, but why and how did 14 year old teenage girls suddenly become the target market for vampires? And why do many of my female friends insist that this series is "the best thing they've ever read"? Is it because its the only thing they've ever read? Probably not, but maybe instead its not really the books; but rather, its the readers (and moviegoers) becoming a part of a bigger movement. Maybe this is the new generation's Star Wars, only totally dumbed down, poorly acted, and an overall steaming pile of shit. Its possible I guess, I'm just disappointed we couldn't do better than this...

Speaking of which, only 2.5 weeks till Avatar in Imax 3D.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Day 37: Remedial Education


The Republican wing of our "two-party" system has never been, nor will it ever be, accused of being too smart for their own good. They have however been accused, on various accounts and by various people, of playing the anti-intellectual card when it comes to difficult subjects. The source of their resistance to both science and common sense is often shrouded, but many times comes down to hiding behind religion. Now I, personally, have no problem with religious practice or even the idea of religion, what I do have a problem with is people using it to blindly lead others or to try and take certain parts of it out of context and use it to defend otherwise irrational behavior, or what's known as Evangelical Christianity. So what have these Evangelical Christians gotten wrong? Can't think of an example? Really, not one? How about I help you out just a tad:
  • Global Warming: Often they've defended (including Sarah Palin) their blatant lack of responsibility by saying, "Oh well God gave us this land and we're to do whatever we want with it because God will take care of us and it." Aaaaaand here comes the rationalism, what happens when you're wrong? And when you're grandchildren are burdened with an overpopulated, over-harvested, over-polluted planet and you're dead? Where's your God then? Fucking hypocrite.

  • Stem Cell Research: "We cherish the idea of any life, this must be stopped..." Sooo even if the eggs are unfertilized, they can't be used to find potential cures for things like ALS or Multiple Sclerosis? Really? So you're convinced (by what exactly, certainly not science) that the eggs that would be used in these studies would be baby humans? Unbelievable, really? You stupid fuck, do you ever go to make an omelet in the morning and crack an egg only to see a baby chicken fall out into the bowl? No. No you don't, go back to second grade biology class Joel Osteen you piece of shit.

  • Banned Book Lists: "These are books that we consider to be unfit for Christian minds!" the pastors piously declare as they slink off to the rectory to tend to their altar boys. Right so you can somehow decide what is and what isn't fit for the Christian "mind", so...what about all those Gnostic Gospels? Gospel of Mary, Gospel of Thomas, Letters of Justin to Trypho? Those don't belong in the bible? Why? Oh, because they are somewhat contradictory to your brainwashing misogynistic controlling messages? Oh I get it. Okay, well guess what next time I want your opinion on whether or not I can read The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn or To Kill a Mockingbird, I'm not coming to you for advice, sound good? Thanks...you hypocritical morally bankrupt piece of shit figurehead.

  • Segregation & Slavery: During the civil rights movement, the Evangelical Christian wing of the church condemned things such as Brown v Board of Education and praised Jim Crow laws...yes, those same freedom loving soccer moms that still live in the gentrified suburbian developments were racist back then too. But I guess in their defense it does warn in the Bible about the Mosiac law warning of intermingling between the Israelites and the Canaanites, so...right so that's good...dear God.

  • Abortion: Now listen I don't advocate abortion as a first choice. I think its a necessary evil, and not evil in them moral "good vs. evil" sense of the word, but evil as in its a dirty deed that the country needs to prevent an even worse outcome. For instance, how is it "Christian" to allow a mother to not have the choice between saving her own life at the expense of her fetus if it comes down to it? How can these Evangelical Christians justify that? On top of that, I believe it was George Carlin that originally pointed it out, but why do these nut jobs only care about the lives of these kids while their in utero? Why is it that once they're born then they're fucked and out on their own, no longer the problem of the church, and now its survival of the fittest? Hypocrites? You'll notice an ongoing theme.

  • Heliocentric Solar System: Remember when Giordano Bruno was burned at the stake for asserting (correctly) that the Sun, not the Earth, is at the center of our Solar System? Of course you don't. Do you remember reading about it? No, why would they bring that up in Sunday School? This guy was killed BY THE CHURCH because he spoke out about his studies and what the entire scientific community agreed upon. If only there were some modern day equivalent of this...oh wait...Lesson to be learned here, if science says its true, chances are it is....motherf*cker!

  • Israel: Why do we support this country (which is essentially a terrorist country--by our vague definition of it)? Ohh...right because the "holy" lands are there, oh I see it. So even if our support for this country is jeopardizing our ability to interact with the more relevant parts of the world (resource-wise), Iraq/Iran/Afghanistan/Syria/etc...Wouldn't the United States be much better off if we decided NOT to stay in bed with Israel? I have yet to see the benefits part of this "friends with benefits" relationship.

  • The Rapture: Dumb. Don't even start. Really? Is this the best you've really got? You really think that one morning you're going, my bad, I'm going to wake up and all of the fanatical Evangelical Christians are going to disappear into Heaven leaving the rest of us here to witness the Apocalypse? Really...you probably also think that Genesis is a biography, stupid cock. Use some goddamn common sense you piece of shite.

  • 6000 Year Old Earth: I can't possibly even stoop to the utter fucking idiocracy it would take one to honestly believe that this and what it entails is true. This means that Evangelical Christians believe that The Flintstones was a FUCKING DOCUMENTARY. Oh, please please please move to the wilderness of Alaska and steer clear of civilized society.
So where was I? Oh yeah, so here we are in our wonderful dichotomous two-party system where no matter what one party does, its the absolute worst thing in the world to the other party. Well the topic de jour is Health Care. Regardless of where you stand on how to deal with the issue there's no way you can honestly admit that there are no problems with the system as is. For instance, I have "good" insurance, my girlfriend--ahem, fiance--is fully covered under this plan. Two years ago she had to go to the emergency room for an appendectomy. I figure, no big deal, we've got insurance, bing bang boom...we're golden. She ended up staying in recovery for three days due to infection, but again no big deal, we've got insurance baby!, so we leave and go on with our lives. A few months later, we get THE BILL. Not only did the insurance not cover anesthetic, it didn't cover a slew of other things as well. Needless to say, even with our "great" insurance we had to take out a loan just to pay for medical bills, AND WE'RE INSURED! Imagine if we weren't....I can tell you for sure I wouldn't be sitting here typing this right now. Why not you ask? Well because I'd have to find another fucking job on top of the one I already have just to pay for a simple operation, that's why.

That's not the point I was trying to make though, that was just an illustration of my prolific use of CAPS LOCK, and that I do have a dog in this fight (its been long enough since Michael Vick to use that now right?). One of the bigger talking points that the Republican party is currently employing to knock down the Senate Health Care Bill (THERE IS NO OBAMA PLAN STOP QUOTING THAT), is that there are too many pages in it. Well that's interesting, too many pages, well since this is an important piece of legislation I would imagine it would be a few hundred pages, I mean its "in theory" a fairly transformative program that would cover all but 3% of Americans (or so they say). Anyway, so the big gripe is that its far too long to read; in fact, they're telling people that it's "longer than War and Peace". Well I went ahead and looked into this, and here are my findings:

The current senate health care bill, as is, sits at 209 pages (single spaced)...209...209 fucking pages?! What the fuck...so if it's longer than War and Peace why don't people read War and Peace? Oh....because that's a LIE, weird. War and Peace is 1,284 pages (similar sized font). Oh....so you mean Republicans are blatantly lying? Well, I thought they were the party of esteemed values and principles....oh, not anymore? That's right, now they're the party of exclusion and corporate welfare, its only okay if the banks get it--right?

But Scott, you might say, clearly this is some type of trickery of margins or font size or something along those lines, there has to be a reason Joe Barton (R-etard, TX) would say something like that right? Well lets look at a word count, shall we?:

  • Senate Health Care Bill: 318,512 words
  • War and Peace: 660,000 words
What! War and Peace is more than twice the length, no matter which convoluted way you could ever possibly come up with binding the two respective things! Why Joe Barton, it's like you said these things to purposefully deceive people, well know that doesn't sound very American, does it? Maybe its just that Joe Barton isn't very good at reading, and we all know its very hard, so let's do a little more comparative analysis....shall we?
  • Bush Education's Act (No Child Left Behind): An ironic 280,000 words
  • Atlas Shrugged (the Republican Bible): 645,000 words
  • The Harry Potter Series (3rd grade reading level): 1,090,735 words
  • The Bible (King James Version): 788,280
Now get the fuck out, so The Bible and the Republican Bible are both AT LEAST twice as long as the Senate Health Care Bill. Don't you find it strange, that these Republican senators (who we all know have fully read the Bible and presumably Ayn Rand's sacred text on the glory of the Free Market in action) are complaining about the length of something that's barely longer than the two of the seven Harry Potter books their nine year old daughters are reading?

Moral of the story: Don't believe the hyperbolic claims that this piece of legislation is far too complicated for the average person (let alone an elected government official) to understand. Call your local Senators and tell them that simply claiming this is too long to read or having a Senate page read it and process the Cliff Notes is not legislating, it's just laziness. Merry Fucking Thanksgiving.


Friday, November 20, 2009

Day 36: Friday = List#1, Top Albums of 2009

*For those of you who are STILL interested in more Twins wharblgarbling, head over to the Baseball Blog Jesus and keep updated there, that's what I do.

Alright, so we did it; six full days of Twins blogs out of the way. Now what? Is there anything else that matters? Well of course there is. Its nearing the end of both the year and the decade, meaning lists will be galore, and since I'm a sucker for lists, and put a meticulous amount of time and effort into making them, you can bet your ass there will be a few lists here--starting today!

So without further delay, here are the Top 25 Albums of 2009 (Yes I realize 2009 isn't over, but in the remote chance that something epic comes out in the next month and a half I will come back and edit this list). AlsoI have picked some of the highlights off of each of the individual albums, and linked to their respective YouTube videos. If you like the band, please support them and buy their album.

My overall thoughts on 2009's albums are that it was a fairly solid class of albums, unfortunately its not very deep, at least I didn't find it that way. After this list there really isn't many more albums that I enjoyed much. A few notables that didn't make the list: Drake-So Far Gone, Dave Matthews Band - Big Whiskey and the Gru Grux King, The Wave Pictures - If You Leave it Alone, ...Trail of Dead - The Century of Self, Brother Ali - Us and Metric - Fantasies. This isn't to say there aren't any other good albums out there from this year, its just that these are the ones that I've heard and enjoyed. If you have other suggestions, by all means please post them. I hope you find the list at least entertaining, and maybe (possibly) discover or re-discover a couple new great albums.

Top 25 Albums of 2009

25. Jay Reatard - Watch Me Fall


24. Silversun Pickups - Swoon


23. Pearl Jam - Backspacer


22. Heartless Bastards - The Mountain


21. Fever Ray - Fever Ray


20. Mos Def - The Ecstatic



19. Sonic Youth - The Eternal


18. The Lonely Island - Incredibad


17. Wilco - Wilco (The Album)


16. P.O.S. - Never Better


15. Andrew Bird - Noble Beast


14. Built to Spill - There Is No Enemy


13. Animal Collective - Merriweather Post Pavillion



12. Yeah Yeah Yeahs - It's Blitz


11. Julian Casablancas - Phrazes for the Young



10. The Dead Weather - Horehound


09. Brother Ali - The Truth Is Here


08. The Flaming Lips - Embryonic


07. Jay-Z - The Blueprint III


06. Grizzly Bear - Veckatimest


05. Modest Mouse - No One's First and You're Next (EP)


04. Rural Alberta Advantage - Hometowns


03. Kevin Devine - Brother's Blood


02. The Decemberists - The Hazards of Love


01. Phoenix - Wolfgang Amadeus Phoenix

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Day 35: How to Fix the Minnesota Twins (Part 6 of 6)


"How many more f*cking days is he going to talk about the Twins?" the reader thought to himself as he quickly clicked away from Irrelevant Storytime. "I mean we get it, he likes the Twins, but what makes him think he can write for nearly a week about what some highly paid individuals should do with their baseball team? What a crock of sh*t!" Yeah yeah yeah, simmer down. This will be the final, FINAL, day of the Twins offseason outlook. I figure if I spend nearly a week on this topic maybe, just maybe, it'll stir up enough either hatred or complete and utter disbelief on the topic that i'll drive at least a few people to comment with their thoughts about how I'm completely wrong/right, biased, uninformed, etc. You get the picture.

Although I haven't specifically talked about the bullpen, there really isn't too much to discuss there, besides the addition of Liriano as a middle reliever, and a few moves I think the Twins need to make.

Trade Joe Nathan

Why would the Twins want to trade their elite closer? Three simple reasons:

1.) He's expensive. On a team with what we'll assume to be a $90 million payroll for 2010, having $11.25 million invested in a guy who pitches 60-70 innings per season doesn't make very much sense.

2.) He's still very good. Coming off of a season high 47 saves for the Twins, Nathan is widely considered one of the top 3 closers in the game. He racked up 89 K's in 68.2 IP last season, good for a stellar 11.5 K/9 IP, while maintaining a 4:1 K:BB ratio. No one, especially me, would refute the fact that this guy is a stud; however, I wonder if the Twins could spend their money a little more wisely.

3.) He's getting old...plain and simple.


Trade Jesse Crain

I don't feel like the Twins HAVE to trade Crain, especially since his 2009 numbers were distorted by nagging groin injuries; however if an opportunity presented itself for the Twins to package Crain with another player for an upgrade somewhere else, I also wouldn't be terribly upset.

Alright so what have we learned so far?

-SIGN BABY JESUS! Assume 8 years, $150 million...conservatively.

-The Twins should stay put at 3B and resign Joe Crede, using Danny Valencia as a potential backup if, and when, Crede's back gives out.

-The Twins should move Liriano to a full-time bullpen gig to start the season to instill some confidence in him and hopefully get his season started off on the right foot.

-The Twins should trade Glen Perkins for whatever they can get.

-Trade Joe Nathan

-Possibly Trade Jesse Crain

*********************************

Lets just assume Bill Smith (huge fan of this blog) takes all of my advice up to this point, this is what the roster and batting order would look like, with the respective salaries (new acquisitions in bold):

1. LF - Denard Span, L, $435k
2. C - Joe Mauer, L, $12 million
3. RF - Michael Cuddyer, R, $8.5 million
4. 1B - Justin Morneau, L, $14 million
5. CF - Mike Cameron, R, $8 million (2 year, $15 million)
6. DH - Jason Kubel, L, $4.1 million
7. SS - J.J. Hardy, R, $4.6 million (no raise through arbitration)
8. 3B - Joe Crede, R, $2 million ($5 million, incentives)
9. 2B - Nick Punto, S, $4 million

BN - Matt Tolbert, S, $405k
BN - Alexi Casilla, S, $428k
BN - Brendan Harris, R, $1 million (after arbitration)
BN - Jose Morales, $400k

SP - Josh Johnson, $10 million (after arbitration)
SP - Scott Baker, $3 million
SP - Kevin Slowey, $440k
SP - Justin Duchscherer, $4 million (3 yr, $12 million)
SP - Nick Blackburn, $440k

RP - Francisco Liriano, LHP, $1.5 million (after arbitration)
RP - Matt Guerrier, RHP, $2.5 million (after arbitration)
RP - Pat Neshek, RHP, $600k (after arbitration)
RP - Brian Duensing, LHP, $430k
RP - Jon Rauch, RHP, $2.9 million
SU - Mike Gonzalez, LHP, $5 million (3 year, $15 million)
CP - Jose Mijares, LHP, $430k

The total 2010 payroll would then stand at $95.7 million, meaning they would most likely come in under the expected team payroll of $90-$100 million range. (The 25 players above have a salary of $90.7 million, and the remaining $5 million is discussed below).

Of the four new acquisitions shown above three of them come through free agency, while only one (Josh Johnson) comes via trade. The specifics of this sort of trade are contingent on quite a few things, namely that the Marlins actually do want to trade him. However I figure the deal would look something like the following:


Delmon Young
Jesse Crain
Joe Nathan
Glen Perkins
Ben Revere
and $5 million cash

for

Josh Johnson
Mike Stanton
PTBNL

*******************

Of course none of this will ever come to fruition; but like I said this is what I would do. Realistically, the Twins roster will probably not change save for the addition of an aging veteran pitcher (see Jarrod Washburn), and again they'll struggle to break out of mediocrity, but then isn't the struggle what we love about them? I say absolutely not, I'm sick of that "loveable losers" or "underdog" moniker that follows this team around. The Twins have two of the best hitters they've ever had in their 48 year history, they need to turn this club into a winner before Baby Jesus wises up and signs with the Yankees and we sit here wondering what could have been.


Monday, November 16, 2009

Day 34: How to Fix the Minnesota Twins (Part 5)

Yesterday's discussion focused primarily on where the Twins are now; accordingly, today's discussion will focus on where the Twins might be, or at least what their realistic options are.

FA Targets
  • Carl Pavano

    Coming over from Indians in mid-season, Pavano went on to pitch his best season in recent memory, finishing with a career high 33 starts. Though nothing stellar, he provided the Twins with some much needed stability coming over at the beginning of August. 2009 was one of just a few seasons in his 11 year career in which he didn't miss any significant time due to injury (he missed a majority of 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008). He was supposed to be a staple for the Yankees when he was signed as a free agent by the Yankees during the 04-05 offseason, shoring up the back of that rotation. But after being rendered relatively useless to the Evil Empire for the course of his contract, he was the target of the ire of both Bronx fans and players and fled for the more receptive confines of Cleveland in 2009. He now has free agency to deal with but has been quoted as saying he's comfortable in Minnesota and enjoyed his stay there, and would like to stay longer if the deal is right. Given the relatively high injury risk that comes with Pavano it makes sense for the Twins to be somewhat hesitant, but if they can rope him into a 3 year deal at somewhere in the neighborhood of a three year $14 million dealn, then they should pursue that course of action.

  • Justin Duchscherer

    The "Duke of Hurl" spent all of the 2009 season on what was essentially sabbatical recovering from what has been described as "clinical depression". The only person that should have been more depressed than him is me, since I decided to list him as a "keeper" in my fantasy league. In 2008, he completed his transition from the bullpen to a starting pitcher for the Athletics and thrived. In 141.2 IP as a starter, he's posted a 2.45 ERA with a 95:34 K:BB ratio, but only won 10 games as a result of the paltry run support in Oakland. Out of the pen he'd combined for a 3.44 ERA in 295 IP over the course of 6 seasons. He's never been a prolific strikeout pitcher, but he has always avoided the walk, induced enough ground balls, all while avoiding the long ball and has posted great numbers as a result. It's hard to gauge what the South Dakota native might earn on the open market, but I think the 3 year $10-15 million range is reasonable enough, especially given the shadiness of the 2009 season. The team that eventually signs this righty is going to be getting a high value player at an exceptionally low cost, and while he may not be that definitive ace that the Twins are looking for he sure would sure as hell look better in the Twinstripes than, say, Jarrod Washburn.

  • Noah Lowry

    Once a possible trade candidate for Delmon Young, Noah Lowry now hits the free agent market with less value than he had at the time of the trade rumors. The one-time highly touted pitcher isn't a strikeout pitcher, per se, but he does command a very nasty change-up that he uses as his out pitch. In 2005 he pitched to a respectable 7.58 K/9 IP, and pitched 205.2 innings on his way to what should have been a break out 2006 season. However, his strikeout numbers falling to around 5 K/9 IP in the 2006 and 2007 seasons. Lowry didn't pitch in 2008 or 2009 due to a nagging injury, which was diagnosed as thoracic outlet sydrome (bahr?) but has apparently recovered enough from it to pitch in the up coming season. The Giants declined his $6.25 million option and at 29 years old, Lowry is left to test the open market. Its not hard to believe that he'll fetch some interest from the typical East Coast dog and pony show, but he should get some consideration from Bill Smith, if for nothing else than that he's a Pepperdine alum Dan Haren's old roommate.

  • Randy Wolf

    Another Pepperdine alumni (you'll notice my unexplainable man/school-crush on the Waves of Pepperdine as time goes by), Randy Wolf posted a 11-7 record with a 3.23 ERA in 2009 in 34 starts for the Dodgers in 2009. Wolf's '09 tperformance has likely priced out the Twins; however, Wolf may actually be one of those pitchers who's pitching skills are vastly overstated by his statistics. Wolf posted the best season of his career since 2002 when he was still pitching with the Phillies. Wolf benefited greatly by pitching in the pitching friendly confines of Dodgers Stadium this past season and is nearly a surefire candidate for a regression this upcoming season. After netting nearly $5 million in 2009, the 33 year old pitcher is likely to be in line for a contract in the neighborhood of $22 million for 3-4 years. So not only would he be a bad target for the Twins from a talent and monetary standpoint, given that he lives in Los Angeles full-time in Slash's old house its also very unlikely he'd leave even if the Twins did express interest.
There are other options out there, and given some recent news, it sounds likely that the Twins may end up signing Jarrod Washburn (yes, really), so these four guys are probably not going to end up getting any consideration from ole Billy Smith and the gang.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Day 33: How to Fix the Minnesota Twins (Part 4)


Disclaimer: Apologies to those who are uninterested with baseball chatter, it will be over soon(ish)...


Today's topic of discussion will be on the starting pitchers for the Twins, and what (if anything) they should do about them. As stated a few days back, the current Twins rotation looks like so:

SP - Scott Baker
SP - Kevin Slowey
SP - Nick Blackburn
SP - Francisco Liriano
SP - Glen Perkins

The real wild card in that rotation is obviously Liriano, and any step towards him regaining his 2006 form would be extremely beneficial. But let's not bank on that, in fact, in the 2009 season he rarely showed anything resembling a league average starter, let alone the phenom that was gathering comparisons to his, at the time, rotation mate Johan Santana. In fact, it was Liriano's strong performance in the latter half of the 2006 season that partially influenced the Twins to trade Johan to the Mets (for what essentially turned out to be J.J. Hardy and Jon Rauch, but that's neither here nor there).

As it currently stands the rotation lacks, and desperately needs, a legitimate ace; especially considering the White Sox acquisition of Jake Peavy from the Friars. So the question is then, which of these pitchers (if any) need to be moved, and which of these pitchers and the pitchers in the Twins minor league system have earned or deserve serious consideration for the 2010 Opening Day roster. Well that's what we're going to tackle here, so strap on boots because its going to get bumpy.


Scott Baker

Scott Baker began his 2009 campaign with a vicious series of drubbings that made most people quickly forget that this was the same guy that ended the '08 season with a very respectable 3.45 ERA over 172.1 IP with 141:42 K:BB ratio. For all intents and purposes, he was the Twins ace of the 2008 season. Only 26 at the start of the 2008 season, everything seemed to point to Baker finally blossoming into that 1-2 type pitcher than Twins fans had hoped for. The only real knock on Baker was he seemed to give up more HRs than one would like, but given the rest of his numbers it was really picking knits. This year that seemingly minor blemish on Baker track record came to dominate his first half. Baker was sporting a Livan-esque 6.32 ERA through April and May giving up 14 HR in only 52.2 innings of work. During these early months, there were calls from various media sources to cut ties with Baker or to demote him to AAA, in favor of ??, but Baker powered through to finish the season as maybe the rotations most reliable pitcher, again. Baker comes into the 2010 season looking to build upon the solid foundation he's establish over the past few years and is by quite a large margin the most reliable pitcher in the Twins current rotation.

Kevin Slowey

Derailed last season with a wrist injury, Slowey's potential to become a legit 2-type pitcher is very real. Discounting his final two starts given the injury, he had put together a very effective 4.04 ERA in 84.2 IP, with a 67:10 K:BB ratio and winning 10 games. Slowey was on his was to a great year before the season ending wrist injury. Slowey will be ready for spring training '10 and looks to complete his first full MLB season. Barring another flukey injury Slowey will be an excellent complement to Baker for many years to come.

Nick Blackburn

In 2009 Blackburn was given what might be the most annoying nickname in all of baseball, "Blackie". Though he bares no resemblance to the stray cat that lurks through your neighborhood, for the most part, he is just as much of an anomaly. Throughout the minors Blackburn's numbers seemed to suggest back end starter as much as anyone; however, once he was brought up to the Show and given a chance he took full advantage of it. In 2008, Blackburn pitched 193.1 innings with a solid 4.05 ERA, with a relatively beefy (especially for the Twins) 96:39 K:BB ratio, still above league average. He went on to go .500 that season with 11 wins and 11 losses. In his second full season (2009), Blackburn took a 3.06 ERA into the All-Star break, and while his primary numbers looked good, his peripheral numbers seemed to suggest he was in for a regression. His BABIP at All-Star break was miniscule and by the end of the season, he'd seen his regression and finished with a nearly league average .309 BABIP. While Blackburn's performance in the majors since arriving hasn't been Lincecumworthy, it has been solid. If there's one area Blackburn needs to improve it would be with his fastball, on a pitch that he throws over 60% of the time he needs to locate it to miss more bats more frequently. His 2009 regular season numbers don't vary much compared to his 2008 numbers, but its hard to wonder what would have happened had it not been for his "lucky" first half.

Francisco Liriano

I've already suggested here that for the time being the best place for Liriano is in the bullpen. I'll be the first to say I'd love to see Liriano rebound back to his 2006 form, but I'm doubtful he gain ever fully regain that ability. As such I won't spend anymore time discussing him until next week.


Glen Perkins

And finally we come to the Perk, Perky, Glen Porkins, or maybe its Jek Perkins...either way. Glen Perkins just settled a service time grievance with the Twins regarding whether the Twins purposefully delayed his service time during his shoulder rehab, which essentially prevented him from being arbitration eligible this year. I get the impression that Perkins has sort of rubbed the Twins the wrong way due to this and probably due to the fact that he has NO out pitch. The guy is perfectly mediocre in every definition of the word. Some how this guy is slated to the rotation over more capable pitchers like Anthony Swarzak, Brian Duensing or even Jeff Manship. Even more surprising than that is that some teams apparently have interest in him, as he was rumored to be the target of an early deal (that either was made up or fell apart) for J.J. Hardy. Well if I'm Bill Smith, first I read this blog, then I try to move this guy as quickly as possible. He does not possess the type of stuff that can solidify a rotation that has post-season hopes, even in the AL Central.

Okay, so now that I've gone over what the Twins have slated as the rotation for next year, tomorrow's post will wrap up this part of the discussion with an overview of the what the possible SP moves are for the Twins. I'm hoping to open up a little bit of discussion early next week when I start discussing what I think their opening day 2010 lineup should look like.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Day 32: How To Fix the Minnesota Twins (Part 3)

So where were we, last time I discussed the potential salary and payroll issues the Twins may experience during this upcoming offseason and running into the 2010 season. So where that left us was needing a 3B, some SP help and some bullpen help, with only $10 million in cash to work with. Today's goal is to discuss some of the potential moves the Twins could make in the very near future, and then weigh in on what moves I think they SHOULD make before Gardy fucks this all up...s'alright? S'alright.

Third Base

In-house Options (Pending Free Agents included):

  • Nick Punto: Already discussed as Ron Gardenhire's preferred solution to the hot corner issue, the Twins would diverge from the traditional notion that a player with some offensive prowess be manning third. Punto is a very polarizing Twins figure, for some reason you'll find many fans who love his "hustle" and how he goes out there and gives "110 percent" among the million other cliche things that he supposedly does. Well lets talk for a minute about what he REALLY does. Last season Punto hit .228/.337/.284 with 1HR and 38 RBIs while playing the majority of his 125 games between 2B and SS with a handful of appearances at 3B. Proponents of Punto will defend his little league caliber approach to the plate by touting his ability to "flash the leather" and how he's one of the "best defensive players in the league", really? Well lets look into that too, shall we? Statistically speaking, while playing 2B last year Nick Punto ranked 17th in MLB with a UZR of 3.3, just below the likes of Juan Uribe. Similarly, while manning SS last year Punto posted a UZR of 1.7, good for the 23rd best fielding SS in MLB last year (comparable to Alfredo Amezega's 1.4). Now I realize that stats aren't everything, but they do a hell of a lot more in accurately describing a player instead of simply saying, yeah but look at his hustle...especially since there aren't hustle statistics....YET.

    The point of this rant was not to degrade Nick Punto, I do that enough on a regular basis that I don't need to devote more time to it (wait....didn't I just do that...), the point of this was to show that while Nick Punto's not a great player, his defense is still slightly above the league average. Given that fact, and that some Twins fans and Ron Gardenhire seem to have a permanent hard on for scrappy low talent infielders, the Twins as a team can afford one such player. However, if he is then paired in the infield, and more importantly the batting order, with another light hitting, much worse fielding player (see Orlando Cabrera) then the overall product (the Twins) is worse off for it. That is to say, for all his faults, Nick Punto is a better option at 2B than resigning OC to play 2B and slotting Punto at the hot corner.

  • Joe Crede: Brought over during the 2008-2009 off season as a low risk reclamation project, the Twins offered Crede a single season incentive laden contract to play 3B. Crede has notoriously been a thorn in the sides of the entire AL Central throughout his career, making the move even more interesting. Given the relatively low salary ($2.5 million in 2009) and the relatively strong upside (.283/.323/.506 with 30 HRs in 2006) it was a good move for the Twins to pursue. Now its the 2009-2010 offseason and Crede has found himself without a job, and is likely to find the market fairly unreceptive to chronically injured 31 year old third basemen who hit a mere .225/.289/.414 and played in only 90 games in 2009...Enter the Twins. In Crede, the Twins can again take a low risk, low cost, medium upside approach to 3B and tenure him for another year. He still plays remarkable defense at 3B with a UZR of 12.5 making him the 5th best fielding 3B in MLB last year, just behind Adrian Beltre (more to come on him later). Additionally he did provide some real pop in his brief stint last year, hitting a HR in every 22.2 AB, which compares well with rookie phenom/Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man impersonator Pablo Sandoval (22.9 AB/HR). Assuming he gets no bump from last year's salary, but instead has a lower base salary of say $2 million with incentives that could drive it up to $5 million, Crede could provide the Twins with some right additional handed pop that has been lacking in the lineup the past few years.

    Resigning Crede certainly comes with its own risks, primarily him tweaking his back and yielding himself unable to play (see 2009, 2008, 2007). Crede has just come off of another back surgery and has said, "It seems like this time, the recovery is a lot faster. I feel great right now compared to where I was last year. I'm so much further ahead, moving around a lot better," he is also expected to be fully healthy by spring training. There's also the fact that Danny Valencia is a cheap in-house fall back plan if Crede misses significant time. Between AA and AAA last year Valencia went on to hit .285/.337/.466 with 14 HRs with a 77:39 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and has been informally crowned the Twins 3B of the future. If they do go with Joe Crede, and he gets hurt, then maybe the future comes a little sooner than planned...who's to say that won't be a good thing?
Out of House Options:
  • Adrian Beltre: While playing for the Mariners over the past five seasons Beltre has averaged 21 HRs with .266/.316/.439 and 79 RBIs with a 23.7 UZR over the past 3 years. Coming off an enormous $64 million, 5 year contract with the Mariners (that was dramatically influenced by Beltre's 2004 .334/.388/.629, 48 HR extreme outlier season), he made $13.4 million in the final year of his contract. It's hard to judge the price that the 30 year old (31 by opening day) third baseman will demand, but its safe to say it will be in the neighborhood of $45 million over 4 years. Given this price and other more pressing needs, the Twins are not likely to fork over that kind of cash for a guy like Beltre. However with the recent addition of J.J. Hardy, this addition to the left side of the infield would give them one of the best defensive infields in all of baseball. Additionally it would put another right handed bat in the lineup with some solid pop. Given the fact that Beltre is a Scott Boras client, and listed Minnesota to his no-trade clause during the 2008-2009 offseason the likelihood of him wanting a to sign with Minnesota seems low.
  • Chone Figgins: Chone Figgins, 32, is coming off what may be a career year hitting .298/.395/.393. His glove and speed on the basepaths would fit well with the Twins needs. The third best fielding 3B last year, with a UZR of 16.7, Figgins has already attracted interest from perennial big spenders Philadelphia and New York (Mets). He "only" made $5.775 million last year with the Angels and while older than your prototypical third baseman, he's due for a fairly dramatic pay increase this offseason. With the departure of Carlos Gomez, the Twins are in need of a little zip around the bases--preferably in the form of a guy who can get on base without having to bunt his way there. Its hard to gauge exactly how much a guy like Figgins is going to pull in on the open market, but I think its safe to assume that he'll be the highest priced free agent 3B option out there, despite his age. His ability to play multiple positions gives teams a lot of options and flexibility to throw multiple defensive lineups out there. What gets a little bit lost in simply looking at Figgins' 2009 statistics is the fact that he's been a fairly mediocre fielder in every other year of his career. This and his proclivity to getting injured, makes shelling out big dollars on a team with few dollars to go around hard to justify.

  • Troy Glaus: Spending all but 14 games injured for the St. Louis Cardinals this year, Glaus has yet to live up to the expectations that came when they traded Scott Rolen for him. With his solid 2008 effort (.270/.372/.473, with 27 HRs) seemingly forgotten, he will hit the open market with a relatively low value. Now a free agent, the Cardinals seem unlikely to pursue him as even a bench spot, or that Glaus would settle nicely into such a role, in the upcoming season(s). As mentioned previously, another big right handed bat would look nice in the Twins lineup, but is Glaus really the guy here? His defense is only slightly worse than mine would be if I were to don the glove and head out there. He's really more of a DH at this point of his career than a useful fielder. His 2008 season with the Cardinals did stand out as decent with him sporting a 4.5 UZR; however, that is an extreme outlier when compared to his career UZR of -30.1. The Twins would be better off putting Cuddyer at third base pushing the inept fielding Kubel out in left field and signing Glaus to play DH for them, and even then its a questionable move.
Given the relatively limited number of viable options out there, this is how I would rank their potential moves (Best to Worst):

1. Crede and use Valencia as a backup plan
2. Adrian Beltre
3. Chone Figgins
4. Glaus
5. Buy a gun and two bullets
6. Place barrel of said gun to my temple
7. Pull trigger
8. Buy Windex to clean the inevitable brain matter spray
9. Put Punto at 3B

Tomorrow I will be discussing the starting pitching options...I bet you're on the edge of your seat right now, eh?


Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Day 31: How to Fix the Minnesota Twins (Part 2)


Yesterday I talked briefly about the moves that have already been undertaken by the Geminis (a nickname that I'm not ready to give up on yet, especially when the alternative is the Twinkies). Today's and tomorrow's topics of discussion are saved for the payroll and possible targets for Twins this offseason. The 2009-2010 offseason isn't exactly chuck full of talents Free Agents chomping at the bit to sign with a small market wunderkind, but there are a few relatively interesting options out there that are worth considering, but first lets take a look at where we are now--payroll wise.

The Twins expected payroll should increase to somewhere in the neighborhood of $90 million dollars this year, which is pretty good considering they've never had a payroll that exceeded $75 million. Also there are reports that seems to hint that the payroll, with the boost from the new stadium could be in the $90-100 Million range, but for the sake of conservatism I'll go with $90 million.

Much of the following section was taken from mlbtraderumors.com, a highly recommended website for those interested in...mlb...trade..rumors...pretty obviously I guess right? Anyway, so here's what we're looking at before arbitration hearings:

C - Joe Mauer (Baby Jesus): $12.5MM
C - Jose Morales (which turns out is Spanish for Joe Mauer): $400K
1B - Justin Morneau: $14MM
2B - Nick Punto: $4 MM
2B - Alexi Casilla: $428K
3B - Brendan Harris: $466K+
SS - J.J. Hardy: $4.6MM (Unrelated, but the Royals have a player with this name, awesome.)
IF - Matt Tolbert: $405K
LF - Delmon Young : $1.152MM+
CF - Denard Span: $435K
RF - Michael Cuddyer: $8.5MM
DH - Jason Kubel: $4.1MM

SP - Scott Baker: $3MM
SP - Nick Blackburn: $440K
SP - Kevin Slowey: $440K
SP - Glen Perkins: $430K
SP - Francisco Liriano: $430K+

RP - Joe Nathan: $11.25MM
RP - Jon Rauch: $2.9MM
RP - Jesse Crain: $1.7MM+
RP - Matt Guerrier: $1.475 MM+
RP - Pat Neshek: $440K+
RP - Brian Duensing: $400K
RP - Jose Mijares: $400K

With this roster, the Twins committed salaries stand at $74.291 MM this year, this gives them just over $15 MM to work with this offseason (again, assuming that the payroll only increases to $90 million). For the sake of simplicity, let's assume that the committed salaries increase to about $80 million after arbitration, so that gives the Twins a mere $10 million to work with.

So I guess first we should address where the Twins are weak before we talk about possible targets. One of the glaring holes is 3B. It recently came out that Gardenhire wants to resign OC, put him at 2B and then stick Punto over at third. Really?! You're going to somehow fuck up that Gomez for JJ Hardy swap? Why not I guess, you gotta get your boy Shitty Nicky Punto in there, because of his "hustle" and how he "busts his tail off". This is the worst possible scenario for 3B, which means it will probably play out...Please Bill Smith don't let Gardy influence your decision to resign OC.

Let's just assume that this doesn't come to fruition and that OC is granted his free agency and Gardy sticks Punto at 2B, which still sucks but it's clear that this suckass is going to be in our lineup, so we need a 3B.
NEED: 3B

So where else are we weak? Well I'm still not too impressed with the rotation, especially since Slowey is coming off of season ending wrist surgery and Francisco "Filthy" Liriano still struggling with his return from Tommy John. I advocate moving Liriano to the bullpen to allow him to build up confidence and regain some of the poise that he possessed in 2006. There's also the lack of a bonafide ace in the rotation, which given their lack of payroll its pretty difficult to address, but nonetheless.

Need: SP

Then there's the bullpen. Once the source of the Twins strength, the bullpen has been left unattended over the past few years and allowed to become overgrown and bloated. Jesse Crain still throws hard, unfortunately he now throws hard right into the bats of opposing batters. Joe Nathan is still Joe Nathan, although he did look a little more shaky this year than in previous, but he's still a top 3 closer in the game. Newly acquired Jon Rauch should provide a solid arm out of the pen for the next year. A healthy Pat Neshek also helps the pen quite a bit, maybe he needs to change the delivery style??? Most underrated bullpen member by quite a bit is Matt Guerrier, the guy is solid every year. SO while more depth at the RP position is always a good move, its probably the least of their concerns at this point and while it may seem like the bullpen blew the game quite a bit more this past year than in years past, it is probably a function more of riding the few reliable guys too hard rather than overall deterioration. That being said, there are definitely some moves that make sense for the Twins to do with the bullpen, including moving Liriano into it.

NEED: RP depth

Alright, so there we are. The Twins need a 3B and some pitching, and they've only got $10 million to work with. God this looks familiar....

In addition to that there is one more (probably the most important of all) thing that the Twins NEED to do before the beginning of next season, which of course is to lock up the Baby Savior for the remainder of his career. Presumably that's going to cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $120 million over 7 years, but should cement the Twins offensively for his tenure...BILL SMITH GET IT DONE ASAP.

So tomorrow we'll finish this discussion (possibly) and lay out a few options that make sense for the Twins, and some that I'd just like to see happen.



Friday, November 6, 2009

Day 30: How to Fix the Minnesota Twins (Part 1)

Needing 163 games to clinch the division title in what might now be the worst division in baseball, the 2009 Minnesota Twins proceeded to get swept out of the playoffs in three games by the Evil Empire. Not surprisingly, all the talk of "momentum" and "being the hottest team" means absolutely nothing when it comes down to game time. The Twins looked positively outmatched in that series, and as much as people want to boil it down and blame the series on a few blown calls (fuck you Phil Cuzzi) it really was their inability to take advantage of runners in scoring position that ended their playoff hopes.

So what? So as Twins fans we move on, we're used to this type of thing by now. We start the x-number of days till pitchers and catchers report to spring training countdown and lament. I've become fairly good at the lamenting part lately, you have to be good at it to be a Minnesota sports fan. But that's not the point of this post, the point of this post was me trying to share my strategy of how the Twins can take their team to the next level and hopefully the next round of the playoffs.

So here we go, off season transactions (so far):

  • Trading Carlos Gomez to the Milwaukee Brewers for J.J. Hardy: Outstanding. Some people might argue that now we officially gave Johan Santana away for nothing, but I say so what. We already knew that when it happened, no reason to make the trade even worse for the Twins by being stubborn about the take and forcing these busted prospects into our lineup. Carlos Gomez is a plus fielder with absolutely no business in the batting box. He's a great fielder essentially because of his speed, as these things tend to go baseball players get slower as they age so its safe to assume his outstanding fielding capabilities would eventually decay making it even harder to warrant a spot for him in an already weak hitting lineup.

    By bringing in J.J. Hardy the Twins also fill the hole in the left side of the infield left by the (presumed) departure of Orlando Cabrera. Given that "OC" is a free agent now it makes a lot of sense for the Twins to pursue other options rather than giving a barely league average overpaid shortstop any extended tenure. This is not to say that Hardy comes risk free, in fact quite the contrary. Coming into the 2009 season Hardy was one of a handful of promising young shortstops that could aptly be described as "toolsy" (and I don't mean the toolsy that gets thrown around to describe players that really have no obvious talent, I'm referring to a guy who can hit the ball, run the bases, and field his position).

    For as bad as his 2009 season ended up being (.229/.302/.357 with 11 HRs and a demotion to AAA mixed in as well) much of it can be attributed to him simply being unlucky. Hardy posted a .264 BABIP through 115 games with the big league squad, when compared to the league average BABIP of .302 its hard to not think something went terribly wrong with his season. It is difficult to compare his 2009 season to his previous four seasons (three really since 2006 was shortened to a mere 35 games due to injury) of MLB experience, but at only 27 years old and only one season removed from .283/.343/.478 with 24 HRs, its hard not to be optimistic.

    Side note: This season I drafted J.J. Hardy as my fantasy shortstop, and I stuck with him all the way until all-star break when I declared that he was now an official member of Club DTM and would no longer ever be on a fantasy team of mine...I feel like I owe him an apology.

  • The Twins exercise their $10.5 million option for 2011: Cuddy, as he's been annoyingly labeled, hasn't been the model of consistency for the Twins. Coming off a career year in which he batted .276/.342/.520 with a team leading 32 home runs, this was a fairly predictable move by the Twins front office. I'm not exactly sure as to why they would have pulled the trigger a year earlier than necessary, but that's why I'm not the GM. Cuddyer has been, as I mentioned before, very good at being inconsistent. He's had a well-documented history of injury problems causing him to only have three seasons (out of his eight full time MLB seasons) in which he played in 140+ games. When healthy he's always been a great hitter, although Dickbert tend to blow his defensive skills out of proportion--especially considering how hamfisted he is in the outfield. His one redeeming quality is his cannon of an arm that he can sometimes use to bail himself out. All in all, a predictable move and probably a good one, but I would have waited till the end of the 2010 season.

  • Allowing Carl Pavano, Ron Mahay, and OC (presumably) to declare Free Agency: These were to be expected and the only semi-disappointing move is the lack of effort in resigning Pavano. I recently read that the Twins (just like every year for the past ten fucking years) are looking to add a "veteran" arm to the rotation. Typically these "veteran's" can be described as fat, eclipsed (much like any source of light behind them), overpaid rehab projects, see Sidney Ponson, Livan Hernandez, Kenny Rogers, Rick Reed--it just would have been nice to see a useful pitcher (see Carl Pavano) signed to fulfill this annual shitshow.

Stay tuned for Part 2 tomorrow.